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Burgos Promesas vs La Bañeza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Burgos Promesas
Burgos Promesas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
La Bañeza
La Bañeza
Enrique Cerezo 37'
10/5/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 8Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Burgos Promesas56%
×Draw25%
La Bañeza18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burgos Promesas
1.56
La Bañeza
0.76

Burgos Promesas creates 105% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 31 away

creates per match

Burgos Promesas
1.45
La Bañeza
0.68

allows per match

Burgos Promesas
0.83
La Bañeza
1.68

finishing

Burgos Promesas+0.00on par
La Bañeza+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos Promesas ↓

La Bañeza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Burgos Promesas or draw
82%
Burgos Promesas or La Bañeza
75%
Draw or La Bañeza
44%

Winning margin

Burgos Promesas wins by 2+
30%
La Bañeza wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Burgos Promesas 1+ goals
79%
Burgos Promesas 2+ goals
46%
Burgos Promesas 3+ goals
21%
La Bañeza 1+ goals
53%
La Bañeza 2+ goals
18%
La Bañeza 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)
76%
La Bañeza (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burgos Promesas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.83 · 64 matches

La Bañeza away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burgos Promesas attack 1.45 + La Bañeza defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.56

La Bañeza attack 0.68 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Burgos Promesas scores more
56%
level
25%
La Bañeza scores more
18%

Burgos Promesas at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Burgos Promesas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
Enrique Cerezo
46'
Hamelín← Rony
64'
Dava← Enrique Cerezo
64'
Ricardo← Samuel Mayo
70'
Jesús Torres← Jorge Cortés
74'
Lorento← Aitor García
89'
Óscar Ortega← Asier Barahona
Burgos
La
Raúl Bayón
Bayón
Pablo González
González
Mateo
Mateo
Sampedro
Sampedro
Viti
Viti
Aitor García
▼
García
Samuel Mayo
▼
Mayo
Chema Suárez
Suárez
Rony
▼
Rony
Álvaro de Lera
Lera
David Borge
Borge
Álex Aparicio
Aparicio
Raúl Espinosa
Espinosa
Casado
Casado
Paco Puertas
Puertas
David Hinojosa
Hinojosa
Jorge Cortés
▼
Cortés
Óscar Vázquez
Vázquez
Enrique Cerezo
⚽
▼
Cerezo
Mota
Mota
Asier Barahona
▼
Barahona
Gabri Ortega
Ortega
Carlos Aguilera
Manager: Carlos Aguilera
64'▲Dava←▼Enrique Cerezo
70'▲Jesús Torres←▼Jorge Cortés
89'▲Óscar Ortega←▼Asier Barahona

Burgos Promesas substitutes

DavaTorresOrtega
José Román
Manager: José Román
46'▲Hamelín←▼Rony
64'▲Ricardo←▼Samuel Mayo
74'▲Lorento←▼Aitor García

La Bañeza substitutes

HamelínRicardoLorento

Burgos Promesas 1 – 0 La Bañeza

Burgos Promesas beat La Bañeza 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 5, 2019.

Goals: Enrique Cerezo (37').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares in Burgos.