La Bañeza 0–0 Bembibre: Result & Stats

La Bañeza

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bembibre

1/19/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 23Estadio La Llanera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

La Bañeza39%

×Draw27%

Bembibre34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La BañezaExpected goals in this matchBembibre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.16

La Bañeza

1.27

Bembibre

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 110 away

1.03

creates per match

0.82

1.50

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

La Bañeza

1.03

Bembibre

0.82

allows per match

La Bañeza

1.50

Bembibre

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Bañeza+0.00on par

Bembibre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Bañeza ↓

Bembibre →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

La Bañeza or draw

66%

La Bañeza or Bembibre

73%

Draw or Bembibre

61%

Winning margin

La Bañeza wins by 2+

17%

Bembibre wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

La Bañeza 1+ goals

72%

La Bañeza 2+ goals

36%

La Bañeza 3+ goals

14%

Bembibre 1+ goals

69%

Bembibre 2+ goals

32%

Bembibre 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

La Bañeza (draw refunded)

54%

Bembibre (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Bañeza at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Bembibre away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.51 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Bañeza attack 1.03 + Bembibre defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bembibre attack 0.82 + La Bañeza defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

La Bañeza scores more

39%

level

27%

Bembibre scores more

34%

La Bañeza at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "La Bañeza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'

Rony← Diego García

73'

Manuel Mon← Santiago Gonzalez

76'

Rubén← Manuel Rodriguez

80'

Samuel Mayo← Adrián Rojo

85'

Bruno Barrio← Lorento

89'

Tano← Carlos Cruz

Bembibre

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Carlos Delgado

67'▲Rony←▼Diego García

80'▲Samuel Mayo←▼Adrián Rojo

85'▲Bruno Barrio←▼Lorento

La Bañeza substitutes

RonyMayoBarrio

Manager: Adrián Benavides

73'▲Manuel Mon←▼Santiago Gonzalez

76'▲Rubén←▼Manuel Rodriguez

89'▲Tano←▼Carlos Cruz

Bembibre substitutes

MonRubénTano

Match Recap: La Bañeza vs Bembibre

La Bañeza and Bembibre drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio La Llanera in La Bañeza.

La Bañeza vs Bembibre — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: La Bañeza vs Bembibre