Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bembibre vs La Bañeza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Bembibre
Bembibre
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
La Bañeza
La Bañeza
Samuel Mayo 89'
Álvaro de Lera 44' (pen)
9/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2Estadio La Devesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Bembibre47%
×Draw28%
La Bañeza25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bembibre
1.36
La Bañeza
0.92

Bembibre creates 48% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 31 away

creates per match

Bembibre
1.05
La Bañeza
0.68

allows per match

Bembibre
1.15
La Bañeza
1.68

finishing

Bembibre+0.00on par
La Bañeza+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bembibre ↓

La Bañeza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bembibre or draw
75%
Bembibre or La Bañeza
72%
Draw or La Bañeza
53%

Winning margin

Bembibre wins by 2+
22%
La Bañeza wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bembibre 1+ goals
74%
Bembibre 2+ goals
39%
Bembibre 3+ goals
16%
La Bañeza 1+ goals
60%
La Bañeza 2+ goals
23%
La Bañeza 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bembibre (draw refunded)
65%
La Bañeza (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bembibre at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.15 · 110 matches

La Bañeza away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bembibre attack 1.05 + La Bañeza defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.36

La Bañeza attack 0.68 + Bembibre defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bembibre scores more
47%
level
28%
La Bañeza scores more
25%

Bembibre at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bembibre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
Álvaro de LeraPenalty
46'
Adrián Rojo← Sampedro
54'
Manuel Mon← Héctor Santín
54'
Manuel Rodriguez← Alberto Pérez
71'
Aser← S. Atassi
78'
Samuel Mayo← Pablo Martínez
79'
Jorge Prieto← Adrián Rojo
89'
Samuel Mayo
Bembibre
La
Raúl Bayón
Bayón
Garrido
Garrido
Pablo González
González
Sampedro
▼
Sampedro
Hamelín
Hamelín
Aitor García
García
Hugo Murciego
Murciego
Chema Suárez
Suárez
Álvaro de Lera
⚽
Lera
Pablo Martínez
▼
Martínez
David Borge
Borge
Héctor Chopo
Chopo
S. Atassi
▼
Atassi
Tano
Tano
Samuel Parra
Parra
Espinosa
Espinosa
Íñigo Albizuri
Albizuri
Francisco Barrio
Barrio
Héctor Santín
▼
Santín
Alberto Pérez
▼
Pérez
Willy
Willy
Alex Basalo
Basalo
Ministro
Manager: Ministro
54'▲Manuel Mon←▼Héctor Santín
54'▲Manuel Rodriguez←▼Alberto Pérez
71'▲Aser←▼S. Atassi

Bembibre substitutes

MonRodriguezAser
José Román
Manager: José Román
46'▲Adrián Rojo←▼Sampedro
78'▲Samuel Mayo←▼Pablo Martínez
79'▲Jorge Prieto←▼Adrián Rojo

La Bañeza substitutes

RojoMayoPrieto

Bembibre 0 – 2 La Bañeza

La Bañeza beat Bembibre 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 1, 2019.

Goals: Álvaro de Lera (44' pen), Samuel Mayo (89').

The match was played at Estadio La Devesa in Bembibre.