La Bañeza 1–1 Atlético Tordesillas: Result & Stats

La Bañeza

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atlético Tordesillas

Ricardo 49' (pen)

Jorge Villa 43' (pen)

2/2/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 25Estadio La Llanera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

La Bañeza30%

×Draw28%

Atlético Tordesillas42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La BañezaExpected goals in this matchAtlético Tordesillas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.31

La Bañeza

1.05

Atlético Tordesillas

1.31

Atlético Tordesillas creates 25% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 110 away

1.03

creates per match

1.13

1.50

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

La Bañeza

1.03

Atlético Tordesillas

1.13

allows per match

La Bañeza

1.50

Atlético Tordesillas

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Bañeza+0.00on par

Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Bañeza ↓

Atlético Tordesillas →

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

La Bañeza or draw

58%

La Bañeza or Atlético Tordesillas

72%

Draw or Atlético Tordesillas

70%

Winning margin

La Bañeza wins by 2+

11%

Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

La Bañeza 1+ goals

65%

La Bañeza 2+ goals

28%

La Bañeza 3+ goals

Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals

73%

Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals

38%

Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

La Bañeza (draw refunded)

41%

Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Bañeza at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Atlético Tordesillas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Bañeza attack 1.03 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.05

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.13 + La Bañeza defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

La Bañeza scores more

30%

level

28%

Atlético Tordesillas scores more

42%

Atlético Tordesillas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atlético Tordesillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

Jorge VillaPenalty

49'

RicardoPenalty

58'

Bruno Barrio← Samuel Mayo

69'

Mateo← Aitor García

72'

Dani Blanco← Rafa Gómez

80'

Adrián Rojo← Ricardo

89'

David Sanz← Rengel

90'

Luismi← Roberto

Atlético

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Ricardo

Martínez

Manager: Carlos Delgado

58'▲Bruno Barrio←▼Samuel Mayo

69'▲Mateo←▼Aitor García

80'▲Adrián Rojo←▼Ricardo

La Bañeza substitutes

BarrioMateoRojo

Manager: Santiago Sedano

72'▲Dani Blanco←▼Rafa Gómez

89'▲David Sanz←▼Rengel

90'▲Luismi←▼Roberto

Atlético Tordesillas substitutes

BlancoSanzLuismi

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: La Bañeza 1–1 Atlético Tordesillas

La Bañeza and Atlético Tordesillas drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 2, 2020.

Goals: Jorge Villa (43' pen), Ricardo (49' pen).

The match was played at Estadio La Llanera in La Bañeza.

La Bañeza vs Atlético Tordesillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: La Bañeza 1–1 Atlético Tordesillas