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Atlético Tordesillas vs La Bañeza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
La Bañeza
La Bañeza
David Sanz 40'
Rengel 37'
Samuel Mayo 69', 55'
11/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 6Estadio Las Salinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Atlético Tordesillas58%
×Draw26%
La Bañeza17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tordesillas
1.54
La Bañeza
0.69

Atlético Tordesillas creates 123% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 31 away

creates per match

Atlético Tordesillas
1.41
La Bañeza
0.68

allows per match

Atlético Tordesillas
0.69
La Bañeza
1.68

finishing

Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par
La Bañeza+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tordesillas ↓

La Bañeza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atlético Tordesillas or draw
83%
Atlético Tordesillas or La Bañeza
74%
Draw or La Bañeza
42%

Winning margin

Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
31%
La Bañeza wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
79%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
45%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
20%
La Bañeza 1+ goals
50%
La Bañeza 2+ goals
15%
La Bañeza 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
78%
La Bañeza (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tordesillas at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.69 · 110 matches

La Bañeza away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.41 + La Bañeza defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.54

La Bañeza attack 0.68 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Atlético Tordesillas scores more
58%
level
26%
La Bañeza scores more
17%

Atlético Tordesillas at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Atlético Tordesillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
Rengel
40'
David Sanz
46'
Ivan Ayllón← Julián Nieto
46'
Diego Franco← Mateo
46'
Jorge Suárez← Jorge Prieto
46'
Eriz García← Oscar Zabalo
55'
Samuel Mayo
56'
Rafa Gómez← Álvi Gil
66'
Luismi← Jesús Torres
66'
Álvaro de Lera← Pablo Martínez
69'
Samuel Mayo
75'
Camilo Hernando← Ivan Ayllón
75'
Miguel Yuste← David Sanz
86'
Aitor García← Samuel Mayo
Atlético
La
Martin Diez
Diez
Pablo González
González
Mateo
▼
Mateo
Victor Fernandez
Fernandez
Samuel Mayo
⚽2
▼
Mayo
Oscar Zabalo
▼
Zabalo
Lorento
Lorento
Pablo Martínez
▼
Martínez
Jorge Prieto
▼
Prieto
Rubén Burón
Burón
Erik Del Río
Río
David García
García
Abraham Rodríguez
Rodríguez
Ivi
Ivi
Rengel
⚽
Rengel
Héctor Blanco
Blanco
Julián Nieto
▼
Nieto
Héctor Vega
Vega
David Sanz
⚽
▼
Sanz
Sergio Prada
Prada
Álvi Gil
▼
Gil
Jesús Torres
▼
Torres
Chuchi Macón
Manager: Chuchi Macón
46'▲Ivan Ayllón←▼Julián Nieto
56'▲Rafa Gómez←▼Álvi Gil
66'▲Luismi←▼Jesús Torres
75'▲Camilo Hernando←▼Ivan Ayllón
75'▲Miguel Yuste←▼David Sanz

Atlético Tordesillas substitutes

AyllónGómezLuismiHernandoYuste
Carlos Delgado
Manager: Carlos Delgado
46'▲Diego Franco←▼Mateo
46'▲Jorge Suárez←▼Jorge Prieto
46'▲Eriz García←▼Oscar Zabalo
66'▲Álvaro de Lera←▼Pablo Martínez
86'▲Aitor García←▼Samuel Mayo

La Bañeza substitutes

FrancoSuárezGarcíaLeraGarcía

Match Recap: Atlético Tordesillas vs La Bañeza

Atlético Tordesillas and La Bañeza drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 22, 2020.

Goals: Rengel (37'), David Sanz (40'), Samuel Mayo (55', 69').

The match was played at Estadio Las Salinas in Tordesillas.