La Almunia 1–4 Barbastro: Result & Stats

La Almunia

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Barbastro

Luso 41'

Jorge Conte 81'

Fernando Arnedillo 53', 48'

Quique Rausell 24'

2/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 21Campo de Fútbol Municipal Tenerías

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

La Almunia29%

×Draw25%

Barbastro47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La AlmuniaExpected goals in this matchBarbastro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.62

La Almunia

1.22

Barbastro

1.62

Barbastro creates 33% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 59 away

1.27

creates per match

1.51

1.73

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

La Almunia

1.27

Barbastro

1.51

allows per match

La Almunia

1.73

Barbastro

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Almunia+0.00on par

Barbastro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Almunia ↓

Barbastro →

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

La Almunia or draw

53%

La Almunia or Barbastro

75%

Draw or Barbastro

71%

Winning margin

La Almunia wins by 2+

12%

Barbastro wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

La Almunia 1+ goals

70%

La Almunia 2+ goals

34%

La Almunia 3+ goals

12%

Barbastro 1+ goals

80%

Barbastro 2+ goals

48%

Barbastro 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

La Almunia (draw refunded)

38%

Barbastro (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Almunia at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.73 · 49 matches

Barbastro away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Almunia attack 1.27 + Barbastro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.22

Barbastro attack 1.51 + La Almunia defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

La Almunia scores more

29%

level

25%

Barbastro scores more

47%

Barbastro at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Barbastro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Quique Rausell

37'

Izán Joven← Luis Pardillos

41'

Luso

46'

Miguel Embid← Jesús Fajardo

46'

David Montesinos← Marcos Orús

48'

Fernando Arnedillo

53'

Fernando Arnedillo

65'

Rubén Lorente← Francisco Leciñena

65'

Javier Guillén← Willy

76'

Jaime Reques← Hugo Bautista

81'

Jorge Conte

82'

Iván Gayán← Oscar Pérez

87'

Juan Solana← Jorge Conte

87'

Diego Torres← Aaron Bocardo

Barbastro

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Luis Leal

37'▲Izán Joven←▼Luis Pardillos

46'▲Miguel Embid←▼Jesús Fajardo

46'▲David Montesinos←▼Marcos Orús

65'▲Rubén Lorente←▼Francisco Leciñena

65'▲Javier Guillén←▼Willy

La Almunia substitutes

JovenEmbidMontesinosLorenteGuillén

Manager: Josete

76'▲Jaime Reques←▼Hugo Bautista

82'▲Iván Gayán←▼Oscar Pérez

87'▲Juan Solana←▼Jorge Conte

87'▲Diego Torres←▼Aaron Bocardo

Barbastro substitutes

RequesGayánSolanaTorres