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Barbastro vs La Almunia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Barbastro
Barbastro
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
La Almunia
La Almunia
Adil Azarkan 52' (pen)
S. Sidibe 48'
10/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 6Estadio Municipal de Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Barbastro44%
×Draw31%
La Almunia25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barbastro
1.15
La Almunia
0.80

Barbastro creates 44% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 49 away

creates per match

Barbastro
1.02
La Almunia
0.96

allows per match

Barbastro
0.65
La Almunia
1.27

finishing

Barbastro+0.00on par
La Almunia+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barbastro ↓

La Almunia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Barbastro or draw
75%
Barbastro or La Almunia
69%
Draw or La Almunia
56%

Winning margin

Barbastro wins by 2+
19%
La Almunia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Barbastro 1+ goals
68%
Barbastro 2+ goals
32%
Barbastro 3+ goals
11%
La Almunia 1+ goals
55%
La Almunia 2+ goals
19%
La Almunia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Barbastro (draw refunded)
63%
La Almunia (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barbastro at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.65 · 60 matches

La Almunia away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barbastro attack 1.02 + La Almunia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

La Almunia attack 0.96 + Barbastro defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Barbastro scores more
44%
level
31%
La Almunia scores more
25%

Barbastro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barbastro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
S. Sidibe
52'
Adil AzarkanPenalty
59'
Alberto Escarda← Sergio Gregorio
59'
Willy← Miguel Embid
70'
Hugo Bautista← Oscar Pérez
70'
Aaron Bocardo← S. Sidibe
72'
Alberto Villar← Adrián Refusta
72'
Alvaro Gil← Izán Joven
78'
Jaime Reques← Quique Rausell
89'
Juan Solana← Jorge Conte
89'
Iván Gayán← M. Sempé
Barbastro
La
Víctor Otín
Otín
Sergio Lou
Lou
Daniel Sarvise
Sarvise
Marcos Orús
Orús
Adrián Refusta
▼
Refusta
Izán Joven
▼
Joven
Luso
Luso
Kever
Kever
Miguel Embid
▼
Embid
Sergio Gregorio
▼
Gregorio
Alvaro Martinez
Martinez
David Salas
Salas
Fernando Arnedillo
Arnedillo
José Val
Val
Carlos Gascó
Gascó
Oscar Pérez
▼
Pérez
Quique Rausell
▼
Rausell
M. Sempé
▼
Sempé
Franc Carbonell
Carbonell
Adil Azarkan
⚽
Azarkan
S. Sidibe
⚽
▼
Sidibe
Jorge Conte
▼
Conte
Josete
Manager: Josete
70'▲Hugo Bautista←▼Oscar Pérez
70'▲Aaron Bocardo←▼S. Sidibe
78'▲Jaime Reques←▼Quique Rausell
89'▲Juan Solana←▼Jorge Conte
89'▲Iván Gayán←▼M. Sempé

Barbastro substitutes

BautistaBocardoRequesSolanaGayán
Diego Cabeza
Manager: Diego Cabeza
59'▲Alberto Escarda←▼Sergio Gregorio
59'▲Willy←▼Miguel Embid
72'▲Alberto Villar←▼Adrián Refusta
72'▲Alvaro Gil←▼Izán Joven

La Almunia substitutes

EscardaWillyVillarGil

Match Recap: Barbastro vs La Almunia

Barbastro beat La Almunia 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on October 16, 2022.

Goals: S. Sidibe (48'), Adil Azarkan (52' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Deportes in Barbastro.