Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lørenskog vs Åssiden IF — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Lørenskog
Lørenskog
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Åssiden IF
Åssiden IF
5/3/20253. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 5Strømmen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lørenskog73%
×Draw15%
Åssiden IF12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lørenskog
3.00
Åssiden IF
1.19

Lørenskog creates 152% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Lørenskog
3.15
Åssiden IF
1.46

allows per match

Lørenskog
0.92
Åssiden IF
2.85

finishing

Lørenskog+0.00on par
Åssiden IF+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lørenskog ↓

Åssiden IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Lørenskog or draw
88%
Lørenskog or Åssiden IF
85%
Draw or Åssiden IF
27%

Winning margin

Lørenskog wins by 2+
53%
Åssiden IF wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lørenskog 1+ goals
95%
Lørenskog 2+ goals
79%
Lørenskog 3+ goals
56%
Åssiden IF 1+ goals
70%
Åssiden IF 2+ goals
33%
Åssiden IF 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lørenskog (draw refunded)
86%
Åssiden IF (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lørenskog at home — creates 3.15, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Åssiden IF away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lørenskog attack 3.15 + Åssiden IF defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 3.00

Åssiden IF attack 1.46 + Lørenskog defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Lørenskog scores more
73%
level
15%
Åssiden IF scores more
12%

Lørenskog at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Lørenskog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Lørenskog 3–0 Åssiden IF

Lørenskog beat Åssiden IF 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Strømmen Stadion in Strømmen.