Åssiden IF 1–5 Lørenskog: Result & Stats

Åssiden IF

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Lørenskog

10/5/2025

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 23Åssiden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Åssiden IF18%

×Draw17%

Lørenskog66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Åssiden IFExpected goals in this matchLørenskog

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

2.84

Åssiden IF

1.44

Lørenskog

2.84

Lørenskog creates 97% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

1.96

creates per match

3.15

2.54

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Åssiden IF

1.96

Lørenskog

3.15

allows per match

Åssiden IF

2.54

Lørenskog

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Åssiden IF+0.00on par

Lørenskog+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åssiden IF ↓

Lørenskog →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Åssiden IF or draw

34%

Åssiden IF or Lørenskog

83%

Draw or Lørenskog

82%

Winning margin

Åssiden IF wins by 2+

7%

Lørenskog wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Åssiden IF 1+ goals

76%

Åssiden IF 2+ goals

42%

Åssiden IF 3+ goals

18%

Lørenskog 1+ goals

94%

Lørenskog 2+ goals

77%

Lørenskog 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Åssiden IF (draw refunded)

21%

Lørenskog (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åssiden IF at home — creates 1.96, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

Lørenskog away — creates 3.15, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åssiden IF attack 1.96 + Lørenskog defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.44

Lørenskog attack 3.15 + Åssiden IF defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Åssiden IF scores more

18%

level

17%

Lørenskog scores more

66%

Lørenskog at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Lørenskog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff