Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

L'Hospitalet vs Cerdanyola del Vallès — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

L'Hospitalet
L'Hospitalet
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cerdanyola del Vallès
Cerdanyola del Vallès
12/14/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 14Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

L'Hospitalet52%
×Draw25%
Cerdanyola del Vallès23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

L'Hospitalet
1.57
Cerdanyola del Vallès
0.94

L'Hospitalet creates 67% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 77 away

creates per match

L'Hospitalet
1.71
Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.08

allows per match

L'Hospitalet
0.80
Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.44

finishing

L'Hospitalet+0.00on par
Cerdanyola del Vallès+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Hospitalet ↓

Cerdanyola del Vallès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

L'Hospitalet or draw
77%
L'Hospitalet or Cerdanyola del Vallès
75%
Draw or Cerdanyola del Vallès
48%

Winning margin

L'Hospitalet wins by 2+
27%
Cerdanyola del Vallès wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

L'Hospitalet 1+ goals
79%
L'Hospitalet 2+ goals
46%
L'Hospitalet 3+ goals
21%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 1+ goals
61%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 2+ goals
24%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)
70%
Cerdanyola del Vallès (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

L'Hospitalet at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.80 · 97 matches

Cerdanyola del Vallès away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.44 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

L'Hospitalet attack 1.71 + Cerdanyola del Vallès defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.57

Cerdanyola del Vallès attack 1.08 + L'Hospitalet defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

L'Hospitalet scores more
52%
level
25%
Cerdanyola del Vallès scores more
23%

L'Hospitalet at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "L'Hospitalet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

L'Hospitalet 3 – 1 Cerdanyola del Vallès

L'Hospitalet beat Cerdanyola del Vallès 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 14, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat in L'Hospitalet de Llobregat.