Cerdanyola del Vallès 2–2 L'Hospitalet

Cerdanyola del Vallès

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

L'Hospitalet

Josep Bonilla 45'

Jordi Avilés 37'

Josep Serrano 14'

Nil Valero 8'

2/2/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 20Estadio Municipal Les Fontetes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Cerdanyola del Vallès33%

×Draw25%

L'Hospitalet41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cerdanyola del VallèsExpected goals in this matchL'Hospitalet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.47

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.29

L'Hospitalet

1.47

L'Hospitalet creates 14% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 95 away

1.31

creates per match

1.51

1.43

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.31

L'Hospitalet

1.51

allows per match

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.43

L'Hospitalet

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cerdanyola del Vallès+0.00on par

L'Hospitalet+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerdanyola del Vallès ↓

L'Hospitalet →

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cerdanyola del Vallès or draw

59%

Cerdanyola del Vallès or L'Hospitalet

75%

Draw or L'Hospitalet

67%

Winning margin

Cerdanyola del Vallès wins by 2+

14%

L'Hospitalet wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Cerdanyola del Vallès 1+ goals

72%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 2+ goals

37%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 3+ goals

14%

L'Hospitalet 1+ goals

77%

L'Hospitalet 2+ goals

43%

L'Hospitalet 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Cerdanyola del Vallès (draw refunded)

45%

L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cerdanyola del Vallès at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

L'Hospitalet away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.27 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cerdanyola del Vallès attack 1.31 + L'Hospitalet defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

L'Hospitalet attack 1.51 + Cerdanyola del Vallès defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cerdanyola del Vallès scores more

33%

level

25%

L'Hospitalet scores more

41%

L'Hospitalet at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "L'Hospitalet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

14'

37'

45'

59'

Mamau← S. One

59'

Adri Díaz← Josep Serrano

71'

Alex Fernández← Carlos Portero

71'

Joao Valencia← Jordi Avilés

78'

Sergio Rey← Josep Bonilla

Cerdanyola

L'Hospitalet

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Bonilla

López

Zayzoun

Manager: Santi Álvarez

11'▲M. Ajani←▼Eric Ruiz

71'▲Alex Fernández←▼Carlos Portero

71'▲Joao Valencia←▼Jordi Avilés

78'▲Sergio Rey←▼Josep Bonilla

Cerdanyola del Vallès substitutes

AjaniFernándezValenciaRey

Manager: Jaume Delgado

59'▲Mamau←▼S. One

59'▲Adri Díaz←▼Josep Serrano

L'Hospitalet substitutes

MamauDíaz

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Cerdanyola del Vallès 2–2 L'Hospitalet

Cerdanyola del Vallès and L'Hospitalet drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 2, 2025.

Goals: Nil Valero (8'), Josep Serrano (14'), Jordi Avilés (37'), Josep Bonilla (45').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Les Fontetes in Cerdanyola del Vallès.

Cerdanyola del Vallès vs L'Hospitalet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Cerdanyola del Vallès 2–2 L'Hospitalet