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L'Hospitalet vs Can Vidalet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

L'Hospitalet
L'Hospitalet
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Can Vidalet
Can Vidalet
A. Garcia 74'
3/29/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 28Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

L'Hospitalet62%
×Draw22%
Can Vidalet16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

L'Hospitalet
1.85
Can Vidalet
0.81

L'Hospitalet creates 128% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 17 away

creates per match

L'Hospitalet
1.71
Can Vidalet
0.82

allows per match

L'Hospitalet
0.80
Can Vidalet
2.00

finishing

L'Hospitalet+0.00on par
Can Vidalet+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Hospitalet ↓

Can Vidalet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

L'Hospitalet or draw
84%
L'Hospitalet or Can Vidalet
78%
Draw or Can Vidalet
38%

Winning margin

L'Hospitalet wins by 2+
36%
Can Vidalet wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

L'Hospitalet 1+ goals
84%
L'Hospitalet 2+ goals
55%
L'Hospitalet 3+ goals
28%
Can Vidalet 1+ goals
56%
Can Vidalet 2+ goals
19%
Can Vidalet 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)
80%
Can Vidalet (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

L'Hospitalet at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.80 · 97 matches

Can Vidalet away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

L'Hospitalet attack 1.71 + Can Vidalet defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Can Vidalet attack 0.82 + L'Hospitalet defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

L'Hospitalet scores more
62%
level
22%
Can Vidalet scores more
16%

L'Hospitalet at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "L'Hospitalet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

74'
A. Garcia

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: L'Hospitalet 1–0 Can Vidalet

L'Hospitalet beat Can Vidalet 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 29, 2026.

Goals: A. Garcia (74').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat in L'Hospitalet de Llobregat.