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Can Vidalet vs L'Hospitalet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Can Vidalet
Can Vidalet
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
L'Hospitalet
L'Hospitalet
11/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 11Camp Municipal El Molí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Can Vidalet35%
×Draw27%
L'Hospitalet38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Can Vidalet
1.25
L'Hospitalet
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 95 away

creates per match

Can Vidalet
1.24
L'Hospitalet
1.51

allows per match

Can Vidalet
1.12
L'Hospitalet
1.27

finishing

Can Vidalet+0.00on par
L'Hospitalet+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Can Vidalet ↓

L'Hospitalet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Can Vidalet or draw
62%
Can Vidalet or L'Hospitalet
73%
Draw or L'Hospitalet
65%

Winning margin

Can Vidalet wins by 2+
15%
L'Hospitalet wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Can Vidalet 1+ goals
71%
Can Vidalet 2+ goals
36%
Can Vidalet 3+ goals
13%
L'Hospitalet 1+ goals
73%
L'Hospitalet 2+ goals
38%
L'Hospitalet 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Can Vidalet (draw refunded)
48%
L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Can Vidalet at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

L'Hospitalet away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.27 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Can Vidalet attack 1.24 + L'Hospitalet defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

L'Hospitalet attack 1.51 + Can Vidalet defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Can Vidalet scores more
35%
level
27%
L'Hospitalet scores more
38%

L'Hospitalet at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "L'Hospitalet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Can Vidalet 2–0 L'Hospitalet

Can Vidalet beat L'Hospitalet 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 16, 2025.

The match was played at Camp Municipal El Molí in Esplugues de Llobregat.