L'Hospitalet 2–0 Atlètic Lleida: Result & Stats

L'Hospitalet

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atlètic Lleida

Sergio Ayala 71', 24'

11/10/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 10Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

L'Hospitalet39%

×Draw27%

Atlètic Lleida35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

L'HospitaletExpected goals in this matchAtlètic Lleida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.23

L'Hospitalet

1.32

Atlètic Lleida

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 17 away

1.71

creates per match

1.65

0.80

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

L'Hospitalet

1.71

Atlètic Lleida

1.65

allows per match

L'Hospitalet

0.80

Atlètic Lleida

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

L'Hospitalet+0.00on par

Atlètic Lleida+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Hospitalet ↓

Atlètic Lleida →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

L'Hospitalet or draw

65%

L'Hospitalet or Atlètic Lleida

73%

Draw or Atlètic Lleida

61%

Winning margin

L'Hospitalet wins by 2+

17%

Atlètic Lleida wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

L'Hospitalet 1+ goals

73%

L'Hospitalet 2+ goals

38%

L'Hospitalet 3+ goals

15%

Atlètic Lleida 1+ goals

71%

Atlètic Lleida 2+ goals

35%

Atlètic Lleida 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)

53%

Atlètic Lleida (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

L'Hospitalet at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.80 · 97 matches

Atlètic Lleida away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

L'Hospitalet attack 1.71 + Atlètic Lleida defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.32

Atlètic Lleida attack 1.65 + L'Hospitalet defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

L'Hospitalet scores more

39%

level

27%

Atlètic Lleida scores more

35%

L'Hospitalet at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "L'Hospitalet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Sergio Ayala

50'

Izan Maldonado← Pol Ballesteros

65'

Jaume Fernández← Carlos Martínez

65'

Sanku Jabbie← Joel Lasso

70'

Haji Ceesay← Sehou Sarr

70'

V. Pentelei← Lucas Pariente

71'

Sergio Ayala

72'

Roger Alcalá← Antonio Bioque

72'

Daouda Koné← Sergi Quirós

76'

Guillermo Cucurull← Lluis Samso

76'

Toni Vicente← Jordi Ortega

86'

S. Ayala

86'

S. Ayala

L'Hospitalet

Atlètic

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Jaume Delgado

50'▲Izan Maldonado←▼Pol Ballesteros

65'▲Jaume Fernández←▼Carlos Martínez

65'▲Sanku Jabbie←▼Joel Lasso

70'▲Haji Ceesay←▼Sehou Sarr

70'▲V. Pentelei←▼Lucas Pariente

L'Hospitalet substitutes

MaldonadoFernándezJabbieCeesayPentelei

Manager: Gabri

72'▲Roger Alcalá←▼Antonio Bioque

72'▲Daouda Koné←▼Sergi Quirós

76'▲Guillermo Cucurull←▼Lluis Samso

76'▲Toni Vicente←▼Jordi Ortega

Atlètic Lleida substitutes

AlcaláKonéCucurullVicente

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: L'Hospitalet 2–0 Atlètic Lleida

L'Hospitalet beat Atlètic Lleida 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 10, 2024.

Goals: Sergio Ayala (24', 71').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat in L'Hospitalet de Llobregat.

L'Hospitalet vs Atlètic Lleida — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: L'Hospitalet 2–0 Atlètic Lleida