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Atlètic Lleida vs L'Hospitalet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Atlètic Lleida
Atlètic Lleida
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
L'Hospitalet
L'Hospitalet
3/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 27Camp de futbol Ramon Farrús

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlètic Lleida45%
×Draw25%
L'Hospitalet29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlètic Lleida
1.52
L'Hospitalet
1.17

Atlètic Lleida creates 30% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 95 away

creates per match

Atlètic Lleida
1.76
L'Hospitalet
1.51

allows per match

Atlètic Lleida
0.82
L'Hospitalet
1.27

finishing

Atlètic Lleida+0.00on par
L'Hospitalet+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlètic Lleida ↓

L'Hospitalet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atlètic Lleida or draw
71%
Atlètic Lleida or L'Hospitalet
75%
Draw or L'Hospitalet
55%

Winning margin

Atlètic Lleida wins by 2+
23%
L'Hospitalet wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atlètic Lleida 1+ goals
78%
Atlètic Lleida 2+ goals
45%
Atlètic Lleida 3+ goals
20%
L'Hospitalet 1+ goals
69%
L'Hospitalet 2+ goals
33%
L'Hospitalet 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atlètic Lleida (draw refunded)
61%
L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlètic Lleida at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

L'Hospitalet away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.27 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlètic Lleida attack 1.76 + L'Hospitalet defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.52

L'Hospitalet attack 1.51 + Atlètic Lleida defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atlètic Lleida scores more
45%
level
25%
L'Hospitalet scores more
29%

Atlètic Lleida at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atlètic Lleida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Atlètic Lleida 0–0 L'Hospitalet

Atlètic Lleida and L'Hospitalet drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 23, 2025.

The match was played at Camp de futbol Ramon Farrús in Lleida.