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L'Entregu vs Barcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

L'Entregu
L'Entregu
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Barcia
Barcia
11/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Estadio Nuevo Nalón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

L'Entregu59%
×Draw23%
Barcia17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

L'Entregu
1.75
Barcia
0.82

L'Entregu creates 113% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 17 away

creates per match

L'Entregu
1.37
Barcia
0.65

allows per match

L'Entregu
0.99
Barcia
2.12

finishing

L'Entregu+0.00on par
Barcia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Entregu ↓

Barcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

L'Entregu or draw
83%
L'Entregu or Barcia
77%
Draw or Barcia
41%

Winning margin

L'Entregu wins by 2+
34%
Barcia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

L'Entregu 1+ goals
83%
L'Entregu 2+ goals
52%
L'Entregu 3+ goals
25%
Barcia 1+ goals
56%
Barcia 2+ goals
20%
Barcia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

L'Entregu (draw refunded)
77%
Barcia (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

L'Entregu at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.99 · 110 matches

Barcia away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

L'Entregu attack 1.37 + Barcia defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.75

Barcia attack 0.65 + L'Entregu defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

L'Entregu scores more
59%
level
23%
Barcia scores more
17%

L'Entregu at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "L'Entregu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: L'Entregu vs Barcia

L'Entregu beat Barcia 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Nalón in El Entrego.