Barcia 0–3 L'Entregu: Result & Stats

Barcia

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

L'Entregu

4/7/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 28Campo de fútbol San Sebastián

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Barcia19%

×Draw22%

L'Entregu59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarciaExpected goals in this matchL'Entregu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.96

Barcia

1.02

L'Entregu

1.96

L'Entregu creates 92% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 112 away

0.88

creates per match

1.26

2.65

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Barcia

0.88

L'Entregu

1.26

allows per match

Barcia

2.65

L'Entregu

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcia+0.00on par

L'Entregu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcia ↓

L'Entregu →

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Barcia or draw

41%

Barcia or L'Entregu

78%

Draw or L'Entregu

81%

Winning margin

Barcia wins by 2+

L'Entregu wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Barcia 1+ goals

64%

Barcia 2+ goals

27%

Barcia 3+ goals

L'Entregu 1+ goals

86%

L'Entregu 2+ goals

58%

L'Entregu 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Barcia (draw refunded)

25%

L'Entregu (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Barcia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

L'Entregu away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.16 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Barcia attack 0.88 + L'Entregu defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

L'Entregu attack 1.26 + Barcia defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Barcia scores more

19%

level

22%

L'Entregu scores more

59%

L'Entregu at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "L'Entregu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff