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Kyzyl-Zhar II vs Igilik — 1. Division 2019

Kyzyl-Zhar II
Kyzyl-Zhar II
FT
1 – 5
Igilik
Igilik
10/23/20211. Division1. Division · Round 21Stadion Karasay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kyzyl-Zhar II48%
×Draw21%
Igilik31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyzyl-Zhar II
2.17
Igilik
1.72

Kyzyl-Zhar II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 24 away

creates per match

Kyzyl-Zhar II
1.09
Igilik
0.71

allows per match

Kyzyl-Zhar II
2.73
Igilik
3.25

finishing

Kyzyl-Zhar II+0.00on par
Igilik+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyzyl-Zhar II ↓

Igilik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Kyzyl-Zhar II or draw
69%
Kyzyl-Zhar II or Igilik
79%
Draw or Igilik
52%

Winning margin

Kyzyl-Zhar II wins by 2+
28%
Igilik wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kyzyl-Zhar II 1+ goals
89%
Kyzyl-Zhar II 2+ goals
64%
Kyzyl-Zhar II 3+ goals
36%
Igilik 1+ goals
82%
Igilik 2+ goals
51%
Igilik 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kyzyl-Zhar II (draw refunded)
61%
Igilik (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyzyl-Zhar II at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.73 · 11 matches

Igilik away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.25 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyzyl-Zhar II attack 1.09 + Igilik defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.17

Igilik attack 0.71 + Kyzyl-Zhar II defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kyzyl-Zhar II scores more
48%
level
21%
Igilik scores more
31%

Kyzyl-Zhar II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kyzyl-Zhar II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Kyzyl-Zhar II 1–5 Igilik

Igilik beat Kyzyl-Zhar II 5-1 in 1. Division on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Karasay in Petropavlosvk.