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Igilik vs Kyzyl-Zhar II — 1. Division 2019

Igilik
Igilik
FT
3 – 2
Kyzyl-Zhar II
Kyzyl-Zhar II
7/5/20211. Division1. Division · Round 11Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Igilik55%
×Draw20%
Kyzyl-Zhar II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igilik
2.38
Kyzyl-Zhar II
1.59

Igilik creates 50% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 11 away

creates per match

Igilik
1.04
Kyzyl-Zhar II
0.73

allows per match

Igilik
2.46
Kyzyl-Zhar II
3.73

finishing

Igilik+0.00on par
Kyzyl-Zhar II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igilik ↓

Kyzyl-Zhar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Igilik or draw
75%
Igilik or Kyzyl-Zhar II
80%
Draw or Kyzyl-Zhar II
45%

Winning margin

Igilik wins by 2+
34%
Kyzyl-Zhar II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Igilik 1+ goals
91%
Igilik 2+ goals
68%
Igilik 3+ goals
42%
Kyzyl-Zhar II 1+ goals
80%
Kyzyl-Zhar II 2+ goals
47%
Kyzyl-Zhar II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Igilik (draw refunded)
68%
Kyzyl-Zhar II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igilik at home — creates 1.04, concedes 2.46 · 24 matches

Kyzyl-Zhar II away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igilik attack 1.04 + Kyzyl-Zhar II defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.38

Kyzyl-Zhar II attack 0.73 + Igilik defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Igilik scores more
55%
level
20%
Kyzyl-Zhar II scores more
25%

Igilik at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Igilik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Igilik vs Kyzyl-Zhar II

Igilik beat Kyzyl-Zhar II 3-2 in 1. Division on July 5, 2021.

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion in Karatau.