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Kyzyl-Zhar II vs Bulat — 1. Division 2019

Kyzyl-Zhar II
Kyzyl-Zhar II
FT
0 – 3
Bulat
Bulat
6/25/20211. Division1. Division · Round 10Stadion Karasay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kyzyl-Zhar II40%
×Draw21%
Bulat39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyzyl-Zhar II
1.91
Bulat
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 43 away

creates per match

Kyzyl-Zhar II
1.09
Bulat
1.02

allows per match

Kyzyl-Zhar II
2.73
Bulat
2.72

finishing

Kyzyl-Zhar II+0.00on par
Bulat+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyzyl-Zhar II ↓

Bulat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Kyzyl-Zhar II or draw
61%
Kyzyl-Zhar II or Bulat
79%
Draw or Bulat
60%

Winning margin

Kyzyl-Zhar II wins by 2+
21%
Bulat wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kyzyl-Zhar II 1+ goals
85%
Kyzyl-Zhar II 2+ goals
57%
Kyzyl-Zhar II 3+ goals
30%
Bulat 1+ goals
85%
Bulat 2+ goals
56%
Bulat 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Kyzyl-Zhar II (draw refunded)
51%
Bulat (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyzyl-Zhar II at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.73 · 11 matches

Bulat away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.72 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyzyl-Zhar II attack 1.09 + Bulat defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 1.91

Bulat attack 1.02 + Kyzyl-Zhar II defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kyzyl-Zhar II scores more
40%
level
21%
Bulat scores more
39%

Kyzyl-Zhar II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kyzyl-Zhar II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kyzyl-Zhar II vs Bulat

Bulat beat Kyzyl-Zhar II 3-0 in 1. Division on June 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Karasay in Petropavlosvk.