Bulat 5–0 Kyzyl-Zhar II: Result & Stats

Bulat

FT

5 – 0

Kyzyl-Zhar II

10/18/2021

1. Division · Round 20Stadion Shakhter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bulat68%

×Draw17%

Kyzyl-Zhar II15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BulatExpected goals in this matchKyzyl-Zhar II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.65

1.17

Bulat

2.65

Kyzyl-Zhar II

1.17

Bulat creates 126% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 11 away

1.56

creates per match

0.73

1.60

allows per match

3.73

creates per match

Bulat

1.56

Kyzyl-Zhar II

0.73

allows per match

Bulat

1.60

Kyzyl-Zhar II

3.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bulat+0.00on par

Kyzyl-Zhar II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulat ↓

Kyzyl-Zhar II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Bulat or draw

85%

Bulat or Kyzyl-Zhar II

83%

Draw or Kyzyl-Zhar II

32%

Winning margin

Bulat wins by 2+

47%

Kyzyl-Zhar II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bulat 1+ goals

93%

Bulat 2+ goals

74%

Bulat 3+ goals

48%

Kyzyl-Zhar II 1+ goals

69%

Kyzyl-Zhar II 2+ goals

33%

Kyzyl-Zhar II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bulat (draw refunded)

82%

Kyzyl-Zhar II (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulat at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Kyzyl-Zhar II away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulat attack 1.56 + Kyzyl-Zhar II defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.65

Kyzyl-Zhar II attack 0.73 + Bulat defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Bulat scores more

68%

level

17%

Kyzyl-Zhar II scores more

15%

Bulat at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Bulat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff