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Kyzyl-Zhar II vs Baykonur — 1. Division 2019

Kyzyl-Zhar II
Kyzyl-Zhar II
FT
3 – 3
Baykonur
Baykonur
10/29/20211. Division1. Division · Round 22Stadion Karasay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kyzyl-Zhar II44%
×Draw21%
Baykonur36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyzyl-Zhar II
2.07
Baykonur
1.86

Kyzyl-Zhar II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 43 away

creates per match

Kyzyl-Zhar II
1.09
Baykonur
1.00

allows per match

Kyzyl-Zhar II
2.73
Baykonur
3.05

finishing

Kyzyl-Zhar II+0.00on par
Baykonur+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyzyl-Zhar II ↓

Baykonur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Kyzyl-Zhar II or draw
64%
Kyzyl-Zhar II or Baykonur
79%
Draw or Baykonur
56%

Winning margin

Kyzyl-Zhar II wins by 2+
24%
Baykonur wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kyzyl-Zhar II 1+ goals
87%
Kyzyl-Zhar II 2+ goals
61%
Kyzyl-Zhar II 3+ goals
34%
Baykonur 1+ goals
84%
Baykonur 2+ goals
55%
Baykonur 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Kyzyl-Zhar II (draw refunded)
55%
Baykonur (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyzyl-Zhar II at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.73 · 11 matches

Baykonur away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.05 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyzyl-Zhar II attack 1.09 + Baykonur defence 3.05 → ÷2 → 2.07

Baykonur attack 1.00 + Kyzyl-Zhar II defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kyzyl-Zhar II scores more
44%
level
21%
Baykonur scores more
36%

Kyzyl-Zhar II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kyzyl-Zhar II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kyzyl-Zhar II vs Baykonur

Kyzyl-Zhar II and Baykonur drew 3-3 in 1. Division on October 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Karasay in Petropavlosvk.