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Baykonur vs Kyzyl-Zhar II — 1. Division 2019

Baykonur
Baykonur
FT
3 – 0
Kyzyl-Zhar II
Kyzyl-Zhar II
4/11/20211. Division1. Division · Round 1Stadion im. Gany Muratbaeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Baykonur61%
×Draw19%
Kyzyl-Zhar II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baykonur
2.41
Kyzyl-Zhar II
1.32

Baykonur creates 83% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 11 away

creates per match

Baykonur
1.09
Kyzyl-Zhar II
0.73

allows per match

Baykonur
1.91
Kyzyl-Zhar II
3.73

finishing

Baykonur+0.00on par
Kyzyl-Zhar II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baykonur ↓

Kyzyl-Zhar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Baykonur or draw
80%
Baykonur or Kyzyl-Zhar II
81%
Draw or Kyzyl-Zhar II
39%

Winning margin

Baykonur wins by 2+
39%
Kyzyl-Zhar II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Baykonur 1+ goals
91%
Baykonur 2+ goals
69%
Baykonur 3+ goals
43%
Kyzyl-Zhar II 1+ goals
73%
Kyzyl-Zhar II 2+ goals
38%
Kyzyl-Zhar II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Baykonur (draw refunded)
75%
Kyzyl-Zhar II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baykonur at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.91 · 43 matches

Kyzyl-Zhar II away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baykonur attack 1.09 + Kyzyl-Zhar II defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.41

Kyzyl-Zhar II attack 0.73 + Baykonur defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Baykonur scores more
61%
level
19%
Kyzyl-Zhar II scores more
20%

Baykonur at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Baykonur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baykonur vs Kyzyl-Zhar II

Baykonur beat Kyzyl-Zhar II 3-0 in 1. Division on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion im. Gany Muratbaeva in Kyzylorda.