Kyzyl-Zhar II 2–1 Akademiya Ontustik

Kyzyl-Zhar II

FT

2 – 1

Akademiya Ontustik

6/13/2021

1. Division · Round 8Stadion Karasay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kyzyl-Zhar II30%

×Draw22%

Akademiya Ontustik48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kyzyl-Zhar IIExpected goals in this matchAkademiya Ontustik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.98

Kyzyl-Zhar II

1.52

Akademiya Ontustik

1.98

Akademiya Ontustik creates 30% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 76 away

1.09

creates per match

1.24

2.73

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Kyzyl-Zhar II

1.09

Akademiya Ontustik

1.24

allows per match

Kyzyl-Zhar II

2.73

Akademiya Ontustik

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyzyl-Zhar II+0.00on par

Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyzyl-Zhar II ↓

Akademiya Ontustik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Kyzyl-Zhar II or draw

52%

Kyzyl-Zhar II or Akademiya Ontustik

78%

Draw or Akademiya Ontustik

70%

Winning margin

Kyzyl-Zhar II wins by 2+

14%

Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Kyzyl-Zhar II 1+ goals

78%

Kyzyl-Zhar II 2+ goals

45%

Kyzyl-Zhar II 3+ goals

20%

Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals

86%

Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals

59%

Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Kyzyl-Zhar II (draw refunded)

38%

Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyzyl-Zhar II at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.73 · 11 matches

Akademiya Ontustik away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.95 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyzyl-Zhar II attack 1.09 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.52

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.24 + Kyzyl-Zhar II defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kyzyl-Zhar II scores more

30%

level

22%

Akademiya Ontustik scores more

48%

Akademiya Ontustik at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Akademiya Ontustik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff