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Akademiya Ontustik vs Kyzyl-Zhar II — 1. Division 2019

Akademiya Ontustik
Akademiya Ontustik
FT
3 – 0
Kyzyl-Zhar II
Kyzyl-Zhar II
9/27/20211. Division1. Division · Round 18BIIK Futbol'noye Pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Akademiya Ontustik66%
×Draw17%
Kyzyl-Zhar II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademiya Ontustik
2.73
Kyzyl-Zhar II
1.32

Akademiya Ontustik creates 107% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 11 away

creates per match

Akademiya Ontustik
1.73
Kyzyl-Zhar II
0.73

allows per match

Akademiya Ontustik
1.91
Kyzyl-Zhar II
3.73

finishing

Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par
Kyzyl-Zhar II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademiya Ontustik ↓

Kyzyl-Zhar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Akademiya Ontustik or draw
83%
Akademiya Ontustik or Kyzyl-Zhar II
83%
Draw or Kyzyl-Zhar II
34%

Winning margin

Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+
46%
Kyzyl-Zhar II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals
93%
Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals
75%
Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals
50%
Kyzyl-Zhar II 1+ goals
73%
Kyzyl-Zhar II 2+ goals
38%
Kyzyl-Zhar II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)
80%
Kyzyl-Zhar II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademiya Ontustik at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.91 · 77 matches

Kyzyl-Zhar II away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.73 + Kyzyl-Zhar II defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.73

Kyzyl-Zhar II attack 0.73 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Akademiya Ontustik scores more
66%
level
17%
Kyzyl-Zhar II scores more
17%

Akademiya Ontustik at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Akademiya Ontustik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Akademiya Ontustik 3–0 Kyzyl-Zhar II

Akademiya Ontustik beat Kyzyl-Zhar II 3-0 in 1. Division on September 27, 2021.

The match was played at BIIK Futbol'noye Pole in Shymkent.