Kyustendil 0–0 Hebar II: Result & Stats

Kyustendil

FT

0 – 0

Hebar II

10/7/2023

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 12Stadion Osogovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Kyustendil65%

×Draw22%

Hebar II13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KyustendilExpected goals in this matchHebar II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.68

Kyustendil

1.85

Hebar II

0.68

Kyustendil creates 172% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 38 away

2.09

creates per match

0.55

0.81

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Kyustendil

2.09

Hebar II

0.55

allows per match

Kyustendil

0.81

Hebar II

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyustendil+0.00on par

Hebar II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyustendil ↓

Hebar II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kyustendil or draw

87%

Kyustendil or Hebar II

78%

Draw or Hebar II

35%

Winning margin

Kyustendil wins by 2+

39%

Hebar II wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Kyustendil 1+ goals

84%

Kyustendil 2+ goals

55%

Kyustendil 3+ goals

28%

Hebar II 1+ goals

49%

Hebar II 2+ goals

15%

Hebar II 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Kyustendil (draw refunded)

83%

Hebar II (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyustendil at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.81 · 112 matches

Hebar II away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyustendil attack 2.09 + Hebar II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.85

Hebar II attack 0.55 + Kyustendil defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kyustendil scores more

65%

level

22%

Hebar II scores more

13%

Kyustendil at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kyustendil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff