Hebar II 0–0 Kyustendil: Result & Stats

Hebar II

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kyustendil

4/27/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 31Stadion Saraya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hebar II35%

×Draw25%

Kyustendil39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hebar IIExpected goals in this matchKyustendil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.47

Hebar II

1.38

Kyustendil

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 114 away

1.51

creates per match

1.56

1.38

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Hebar II

1.51

Kyustendil

1.56

allows per match

Hebar II

1.38

Kyustendil

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hebar II+0.00on par

Kyustendil+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar II ↓

Kyustendil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Hebar II or draw

61%

Hebar II or Kyustendil

75%

Draw or Kyustendil

65%

Winning margin

Hebar II wins by 2+

16%

Kyustendil wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hebar II 1+ goals

75%

Hebar II 2+ goals

40%

Hebar II 3+ goals

16%

Kyustendil 1+ goals

77%

Kyustendil 2+ goals

43%

Kyustendil 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Hebar II (draw refunded)

47%

Kyustendil (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.38 · 37 matches

Kyustendil away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.24 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar II attack 1.51 + Kyustendil defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.38

Kyustendil attack 1.56 + Hebar II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hebar II scores more

35%

level

25%

Kyustendil scores more

39%

Kyustendil at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kyustendil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff