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Kyustendil vs Balkan Botevgrad — Third League - Southwest 2018

Kyustendil
Kyustendil
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Balkan Botevgrad
Balkan Botevgrad
4/4/2026Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Kyustendil58%
×Draw22%
Balkan Botevgrad20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyustendil
1.91
Balkan Botevgrad
1.04

Kyustendil creates 84% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 131 away

creates per match

Kyustendil
2.09
Balkan Botevgrad
1.27

allows per match

Kyustendil
0.81
Balkan Botevgrad
1.73

finishing

Kyustendil+0.00on par
Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyustendil ↓

Balkan Botevgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kyustendil or draw
80%
Kyustendil or Balkan Botevgrad
78%
Draw or Balkan Botevgrad
42%

Winning margin

Kyustendil wins by 2+
34%
Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kyustendil 1+ goals
85%
Kyustendil 2+ goals
57%
Kyustendil 3+ goals
30%
Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals
65%
Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals
28%
Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kyustendil (draw refunded)
74%
Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyustendil at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.81 · 112 matches

Balkan Botevgrad away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.73 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyustendil attack 2.09 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.91

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.27 + Kyustendil defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kyustendil scores more
58%
level
22%
Balkan Botevgrad scores more
20%

Kyustendil at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kyustendil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Kyustendil 0–0 Balkan Botevgrad

Kyustendil and Balkan Botevgrad drew 0-0 in Third League - Southwest on April 4, 2026.