Balkan Botevgrad 4–1 Kyustendil: Result & Stats

Balkan Botevgrad

FT

4 – 1

Kyustendil

2/17/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 20Hristo Botev Izkustven Teren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Balkan Botevgrad42%

×Draw25%

Kyustendil33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Balkan BotevgradExpected goals in this matchKyustendil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.35

Balkan Botevgrad

1.56

Kyustendil

1.35

Balkan Botevgrad creates 16% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 114 away

1.89

creates per match

1.56

1.15

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Balkan Botevgrad

1.89

Kyustendil

1.56

allows per match

Balkan Botevgrad

1.15

Kyustendil

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par

Kyustendil+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balkan Botevgrad ↓

Kyustendil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Balkan Botevgrad or draw

67%

Balkan Botevgrad or Kyustendil

75%

Draw or Kyustendil

58%

Winning margin

Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+

21%

Kyustendil wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals

79%

Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals

46%

Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals

21%

Kyustendil 1+ goals

74%

Kyustendil 2+ goals

39%

Kyustendil 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)

56%

Kyustendil (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balkan Botevgrad at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.15 · 129 matches

Kyustendil away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.24 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.89 + Kyustendil defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.56

Kyustendil attack 1.56 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Balkan Botevgrad scores more

42%

level

25%

Kyustendil scores more

33%

Balkan Botevgrad at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Balkan Botevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff