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Kyran vs Akademiya Ontustik — Cup 2019

Kyran
Kyran
FT
0 – 3
Akademiya Ontustik
Akademiya Ontustik
4/6/2022CupCup · 1st Preliminary RoundFutbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kyran27%
×Draw23%
Akademiya Ontustik50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyran
1.31
Akademiya Ontustik
1.85

Akademiya Ontustik creates 41% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kyran
1.20
Akademiya Ontustik
1.71

allows per match

Kyran
2.00
Akademiya Ontustik
1.43

finishing

Kyran+0.00on par
Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyran ↓

Akademiya Ontustik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kyran or draw
50%
Kyran or Akademiya Ontustik
77%
Draw or Akademiya Ontustik
73%

Winning margin

Kyran wins by 2+
12%
Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Kyran 1+ goals
73%
Kyran 2+ goals
38%
Kyran 3+ goals
14%
Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals
84%
Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals
55%
Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Kyran (draw refunded)
35%
Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyran at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Akademiya Ontustik away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyran attack 1.20 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.71 + Kyran defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kyran scores more
27%
level
23%
Akademiya Ontustik scores more
50%

Akademiya Ontustik at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Akademiya Ontustik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Kyran 0–3 Akademiya Ontustik

Akademiya Ontustik beat Kyran 3-0 in Cup on April 6, 2022.

The match was played at Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field in Shymkent.