Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Akademiya Ontustik vs Kyran — 1. Division 2019

Akademiya Ontustik
Akademiya Ontustik
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Kyran
Kyran
8/27/20221. Division1. Division · Round 17Stadion Namys

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Akademiya Ontustik41%
×Draw22%
Kyran37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademiya Ontustik
1.92
Kyran
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 59 away

creates per match

Akademiya Ontustik
1.73
Kyran
1.73

allows per match

Akademiya Ontustik
1.91
Kyran
2.10

finishing

Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par
Kyran+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademiya Ontustik ↓

Kyran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Akademiya Ontustik or draw
63%
Akademiya Ontustik or Kyran
78%
Draw or Kyran
59%

Winning margin

Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+
22%
Kyran wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals
85%
Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals
57%
Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals
30%
Kyran 1+ goals
84%
Kyran 2+ goals
54%
Kyran 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)
52%
Kyran (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademiya Ontustik at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.91 · 77 matches

Kyran away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.10 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.73 + Kyran defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.92

Kyran attack 1.73 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Akademiya Ontustik scores more
41%
level
22%
Kyran scores more
37%

Akademiya Ontustik at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Akademiya Ontustik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Akademiya Ontustik 2–3 Kyran

Kyran beat Akademiya Ontustik 3-2 in 1. Division on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Namys in Shymkent.