Akademiya Ontustik 5–3 Kyran: Result & Stats | Cup

Akademiya Ontustik

FT

5 – 3

HT: 3 – 2

Kyran

B. Daniyarov 68'

Z. Babanazarov 52', 17'

K. Narkulov 43'

A. Yerkebulan 40'

A. Makhambetov 70'

A. Rakhmatullaev 38'

E. Oralbay 28'

3/26/2023

Cup · Qualifying Round - 3Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Akademiya Ontustik40%

×Draw19%

Kyran41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akademiya OntustikExpected goals in this matchKyran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

2.44

Akademiya Ontustik

2.42

Kyran

2.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

2.63

creates per match

3.00

1.88

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Akademiya Ontustik

2.63

Kyran

3.00

allows per match

Akademiya Ontustik

1.88

Kyran

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par

Kyran+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademiya Ontustik ↓

Kyran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Akademiya Ontustik or draw

59%

Akademiya Ontustik or Kyran

81%

Draw or Kyran

60%

Winning margin

Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+

23%

Kyran wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals

91%

Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals

69%

Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals

43%

Kyran 1+ goals

91%

Kyran 2+ goals

70%

Kyran 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)

50%

Kyran (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademiya Ontustik at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Kyran away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademiya Ontustik attack 2.63 + Kyran defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.42

Kyran attack 3.00 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Akademiya Ontustik scores more

40%

level

19%

Kyran scores more

41%

Kyran at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kyran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

E. Amangeldy

17'

Z. Babanazarov

28'

E. Oralbay

38'

A. Rakhmatullaev

40'

A. Yerkebulan

43'

K. Narkulov

46'

S. Abduvaitov← S. Abduvaitov

46'

I. Umarov← I. Umarov

52'

Z. Babanazarov

63'

B. Mansurov← B. Mansurov

63'

M. Abdesh← M. Abdesh

65'

A. Makhambetov← A. Makhambetov

68'

B. Daniyarov

70'

A. Makhambetov

74'

E. Oralbay

74'

A. Baibosyn← A. Baibosyn

77'

E. Sarbay← A. Abdikhamitov

88'

A. Serikzhan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff