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Kyoto Sanga vs Tokyo Verdy — J1 League 2018

Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
Preview
11:00
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
2/27/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 23Sanga Stadium by Kyocera
Big match
41%
Kyoto Sanga
model favours
41%28%31%

Tokyo Verdy score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Kyoto Sanga41%
×Draw28%
Tokyo Verdy31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyoto Sanga
1.27
Tokyo Verdy
1.05

Kyoto Sanga creates 21% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 46 away

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.25
Tokyo Verdy
0.85

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.25
Tokyo Verdy
1.30

finishing

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par
Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Tokyo Verdy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw
69%
Kyoto Sanga or Tokyo Verdy
72%
Draw or Tokyo Verdy
59%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
19%
Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
72%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
36%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
14%
Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
65%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
28%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
57%
Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 79 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.25 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.85 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more
41%
level
28%
Tokyo Verdy scores more
31%

Kyoto Sanga at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Kyoto Sanga score first in only 27% of matches
  • 73% of Kyoto Sanga’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Kyoto Sanga
Balanced
Tokyo Verdy
Defensively solid
51%Possession47%
71%Pass accuracy76%
12.8Shots10.2
1.13xGBiggest gap0.88
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Kyoto SangaTokyo Verdy

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Kyoto Sanga
2
Draws
3
Tokyo Verdy
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 40%
1–00–10–02–23–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Sanga
WLWLL
Verdy
LDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kyoto Sanga host Tokyo Verdy

February 27, 2027: Kyoto Sanga take on Tokyo Verdy in J1 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kyoto Sanga host Tokyo Verdy at Sanga Stadium by Kyocera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.