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Kyoto Sanga vs Shonan Bellmare — J1 League 2018

Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shonan Bellmare
Shonan Bellmare
6/26/2022J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 18Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Kyoto Sanga42%
×Draw26%
Shonan Bellmare32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyoto Sanga
1.40
Shonan Bellmare
1.19

Kyoto Sanga creates 18% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 142 away

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.25
Shonan Bellmare
1.12

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.25
Shonan Bellmare
1.55

finishing

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par
Shonan Bellmare+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Shonan Bellmare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw
68%
Kyoto Sanga or Shonan Bellmare
74%
Draw or Shonan Bellmare
58%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
20%
Shonan Bellmare wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
75%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
41%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
17%
Shonan Bellmare 1+ goals
70%
Shonan Bellmare 2+ goals
33%
Shonan Bellmare 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
57%
Shonan Bellmare (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 79 matches

Shonan Bellmare away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.25 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.40

Shonan Bellmare attack 1.12 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more
42%
level
26%
Shonan Bellmare scores more
32%

Kyoto Sanga at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Kyoto Sanga 0–1 Shonan Bellmare

Shonan Bellmare beat Kyoto Sanga 1-0 in J1 League on June 26, 2022.

The match was played at Sanga Stadium by Kyocera in Kameoka.