Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse

Kyoto Sanga

Preview

11:00

Shimizu S-pulse

10/31/2026

J1 League · Round 13Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Big match

46%

Kyoto Sanga

model favours

46%25%28%

Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

50%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Kyoto Sanga46%

×Draw25%

Shimizu S-pulse28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kyoto SangaExpected goals in this matchShimizu S-pulse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.15

Kyoto Sanga

1.54

Shimizu S-pulse

1.15

Kyoto Sanga creates 34% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 36 away

1.59

creates per match

1.03

1.26

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga

1.59

Shimizu S-pulse

1.03

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga

1.26

Shimizu S-pulse

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw

72%

Kyoto Sanga or Shimizu S-pulse

75%

Draw or Shimizu S-pulse

54%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+

23%

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals

79%

Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals

45%

Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals

20%

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

68%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

32%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)

62%

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.59 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.03 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more

46%

level

25%

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

28%

Kyoto Sanga at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Kyoto Sanga score first in only 27% of matches
73% of Kyoto Sanga’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Kyoto Sanga

Balanced

Shimizu S-pulse

Balanced

50%Possession51%

72%Pass accuracy79%

12.1Shots12.3

1.11xGBiggest gap1.24

Kyoto SangaShimizu S-pulse

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2

Kyoto Sanga

1

Draws

2

Shimizu S-pulse

Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 80%

1–21–10–12–13–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Sanga

WLWLL

S-pulse

WLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff