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Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima — J1 League 2018

Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
Preview
10:00
Kashima
Kashima
10/21/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 11Sanga Stadium by Kyocera
Big match
48%
Kashima
model favours
28%24%48%

Kashima score first in only 21% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Kyoto Sanga28%
×Draw24%
Kashima48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyoto Sanga
1.21
Kashima
1.67

Kashima creates 38% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga
0.94
Kashima
1.49

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.84
Kashima
1.47

finishing

Kyoto Sanga-0.11scores less
Kashima+0.08on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Kashima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw
52%
Kyoto Sanga or Kashima
76%
Draw or Kashima
72%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
11%
Kashima wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
70%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
34%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
12%
Kashima 1+ goals
81%
Kashima 2+ goals
50%
Kashima 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
37%
Kashima (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.84 · 6 matches

Kashima away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.47 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 0.94 + Kashima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.21

Kashima attack 1.49 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more
28%
level
24%
Kashima scores more
48%

Kashima at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kashima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Kyoto Sanga score first in only 27% of matches
  • 73% of Kyoto Sanga’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 32% of Kashima’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Kyoto Sanga
Balanced
Kashima
Balanced
51%Possession53%
71%Pass accuracy80%
12.8Shots13.6
1.13xGBiggest gap1.44
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Kyoto SangaKashima

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

1
Kyoto Sanga
4
Draws
3
Kashima
Avg goals: 1.9BTTS: 38%
1–14–30–00–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Sanga
WLWL
Kashima
WWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kyoto Sanga host Kashima

October 21, 2026: Kyoto Sanga take on Kashima in J1 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kyoto Sanga host Kashima at Sanga Stadium by Kyocera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.