Kashima 3–4 Kyoto Sanga: Result & Stats | J1 League

Kashima

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 0

Kyoto Sanga

4/6/2025

J1 League · Round 9Mercari Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Kashima47%

×Draw27%

Kyoto Sanga27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KashimaExpected goals in this matchKyoto Sanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.02

Kashima

1.44

Kyoto Sanga

1.02

Kashima creates 41% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 80 away

1.56

creates per match

1.16

0.89

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Kashima

1.56

Kyoto Sanga

1.16

allows per match

Kashima

0.89

Kyoto Sanga

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kashima+0.00on par

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashima ↓

Kyoto Sanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kashima or draw

73%

Kashima or Kyoto Sanga

73%

Draw or Kyoto Sanga

53%

Winning margin

Kashima wins by 2+

23%

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kashima 1+ goals

76%

Kashima 2+ goals

42%

Kashima 3+ goals

18%

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals

64%

Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals

27%

Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kashima (draw refunded)

64%

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashima at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.89 · 151 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashima attack 1.56 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.16 + Kashima defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kashima scores more

47%

level

27%

Kyoto Sanga scores more

27%

Kashima at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kashima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff