Kyoto Sanga 0–0 Kashima: Result & Stats | J1 League

Kyoto Sanga

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kashima

11/17/2024

J1 League · Round 29Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Kyoto Sanga28%

×Draw24%

Kashima48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kyoto SangaExpected goals in this matchKashima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.67

Kyoto Sanga

1.21

Kashima

1.67

Kashima creates 38% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

0.94

creates per match

1.49

1.84

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga

0.94

Kashima

1.49

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga

1.84

Kashima

1.47

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Kyoto Sanga-0.11scores less

Kashima+0.08on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Kashima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw

52%

Kyoto Sanga or Kashima

76%

Draw or Kashima

72%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+

11%

Kashima wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals

70%

Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals

34%

Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals

12%

Kashima 1+ goals

81%

Kashima 2+ goals

50%

Kashima 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)

37%

Kashima (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.84 · 6 matches

Kashima away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.47 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 0.94 + Kashima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.21

Kashima attack 1.49 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more

28%

level

24%

Kashima scores more

48%

Kashima at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kashima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff