Kyoto Sanga 2–1 Consadole Sapporo: Result & Stats

Kyoto Sanga

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Consadole Sapporo

7/2/2022

J1 League · Round 19Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Kyoto Sanga43%

×Draw25%

Consadole Sapporo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kyoto SangaExpected goals in this matchConsadole Sapporo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.27

Kyoto Sanga

1.50

Consadole Sapporo

1.27

Kyoto Sanga creates 18% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 123 away

1.25

creates per match

1.28

1.25

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga

1.25

Consadole Sapporo

1.28

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga

1.25

Consadole Sapporo

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Consadole Sapporo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw

68%

Kyoto Sanga or Consadole Sapporo

75%

Draw or Consadole Sapporo

57%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+

21%

Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals

78%

Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals

44%

Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals

19%

Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals

72%

Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals

36%

Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)

57%

Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 79 matches

Consadole Sapporo away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.74 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.25 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.50

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.28 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more

43%

level

25%

Consadole Sapporo scores more

32%

Kyoto Sanga at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff