Consadole Sapporo 2–1 Kyoto Sanga: Result & Stats

Consadole Sapporo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kyoto Sanga

5/19/2023

J1 League · Round 14Sapporo Dome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Consadole Sapporo40%

×Draw26%

Kyoto Sanga34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Consadole SapporoExpected goals in this matchKyoto Sanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.28

Consadole Sapporo

1.41

Kyoto Sanga

1.28

Consadole Sapporo creates 10% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 80 away

1.49

creates per match

1.16

1.41

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Consadole Sapporo

1.49

Kyoto Sanga

1.16

allows per match

Consadole Sapporo

1.41

Kyoto Sanga

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Consadole Sapporo ↓

Kyoto Sanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Consadole Sapporo or draw

66%

Consadole Sapporo or Kyoto Sanga

74%

Draw or Kyoto Sanga

60%

Winning margin

Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+

19%

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals

76%

Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals

41%

Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals

17%

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals

72%

Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals

37%

Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)

54%

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Consadole Sapporo at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.41 · 123 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.49 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.16 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Consadole Sapporo scores more

40%

level

26%

Kyoto Sanga scores more

34%

Consadole Sapporo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Consadole Sapporo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff