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Kyoto Sanga vs Albirex Niigata — J1 League 2018

Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Albirex Niigata
Albirex Niigata
4/20/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 9Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Kyoto Sanga42%
×Draw27%
Albirex Niigata30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyoto Sanga
1.35
Albirex Niigata
1.10

Kyoto Sanga creates 23% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 57 away

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.25
Albirex Niigata
0.95

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.25
Albirex Niigata
1.46

finishing

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par
Albirex Niigata+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Albirex Niigata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw
70%
Kyoto Sanga or Albirex Niigata
73%
Draw or Albirex Niigata
58%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
20%
Albirex Niigata wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
74%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
39%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
15%
Albirex Niigata 1+ goals
67%
Albirex Niigata 2+ goals
30%
Albirex Niigata 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
58%
Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 79 matches

Albirex Niigata away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.46 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.25 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.35

Albirex Niigata attack 0.95 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more
42%
level
27%
Albirex Niigata scores more
30%

Kyoto Sanga at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kyoto Sanga vs Albirex Niigata

Albirex Niigata beat Kyoto Sanga 1-0 in J1 League on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Sanga Stadium by Kyocera in Kameoka.