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Albirex Niigata vs Kyoto Sanga — J1 League 2018

Albirex Niigata
Albirex Niigata
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
8/12/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 26Denka Big Swan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Albirex Niigata34%
×Draw26%
Kyoto Sanga39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albirex Niigata
1.25
Kyoto Sanga
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 80 away

creates per match

Albirex Niigata
1.18
Kyoto Sanga
1.16

allows per match

Albirex Niigata
1.57
Kyoto Sanga
1.32

finishing

Albirex Niigata+0.00on par
Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata or draw
61%
Albirex Niigata or Kyoto Sanga
74%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
66%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+
15%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals
71%
Albirex Niigata 2+ goals
36%
Albirex Niigata 3+ goals
13%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
74%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
39%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)
47%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.57 · 56 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata attack 1.18 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.16 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Albirex Niigata scores more
34%
level
26%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
39%

Kyoto Sanga at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albirex Niigata vs Kyoto Sanga

Albirex Niigata beat Kyoto Sanga 2-0 in J1 League on August 12, 2024.

The match was played at Denka Big Swan Stadium in Niigata.