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Kyetume vs BUL — Premier League 2019

Kyetume
Kyetume
FT
1 – 0
BUL
BUL
B. Buyala 45'
12/20/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5FUFA Technical Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kyetume33%
×Draw28%
BUL39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyetume
1.14
BUL
1.26

BUL creates 11% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 100 away

creates per match

Kyetume
1.19
BUL
1.17

allows per match

Kyetume
1.35
BUL
1.08

finishing

Kyetume+0.00on par
BUL+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyetume ↓

BUL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kyetume or draw
61%
Kyetume or BUL
72%
Draw or BUL
67%

Winning margin

Kyetume wins by 2+
14%
BUL wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kyetume 1+ goals
68%
Kyetume 2+ goals
32%
Kyetume 3+ goals
11%
BUL 1+ goals
72%
BUL 2+ goals
36%
BUL 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kyetume (draw refunded)
46%
BUL (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyetume at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

BUL away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyetume attack 1.19 + BUL defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.14

BUL attack 1.17 + Kyetume defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kyetume scores more
33%
level
28%
BUL scores more
39%

BUL at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "BUL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
R. Mukoghotya
28'
S. Kabuye
38'
B. Tohomera
45'
B. Buyala
62'
O. Deogracious← O. Deogracious
77'
D. Okot
77'
A. Ntege← A. Ntege
77'
I. Mugulusi← I. Mugulusi
85'
S. Kabuye← S. Kabuye
85'
E. Kaye← E. Kaye

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kyetume vs BUL

Kyetume beat BUL 1-0 in Premier League on December 20, 2020.

Goals: B. Buyala (45').

The match was played at FUFA Technical Centre in Njeru.