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BUL vs Kyetume — Premier League 2019

BUL
BUL
FT
1 – 1
Kyetume
Kyetume
R. Mukoghotya 73'
R. Walugembe 84'
4/13/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Kyabazinga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

BUL57%
×Draw24%
Kyetume19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BUL
1.65
Kyetume
0.82

BUL creates 101% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 26 away

creates per match

BUL
1.43
Kyetume
0.81

allows per match

BUL
0.83
Kyetume
1.88

finishing

BUL+0.00on par
Kyetume+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BUL ↓

Kyetume →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

BUL or draw
81%
BUL or Kyetume
76%
Draw or Kyetume
43%

Winning margin

BUL wins by 2+
31%
Kyetume wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

BUL 1+ goals
81%
BUL 2+ goals
49%
BUL 3+ goals
23%
Kyetume 1+ goals
56%
Kyetume 2+ goals
20%
Kyetume 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

BUL (draw refunded)
75%
Kyetume (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BUL at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.83 · 99 matches

Kyetume away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BUL attack 1.43 + Kyetume defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.65

Kyetume attack 0.81 + BUL defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

BUL scores more
57%
level
24%
Kyetume scores more
19%

BUL at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "BUL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
M. Mujuzi← L. Kiyemba
46'
R. Mukoghotya← R. Mukoghotya
49'
K. Ssemakula
61'
K. Kizito← K. Kizito
61'
R. Walugembe← R. Walugembe
69'
I. Mugulusi← I. Mugulusi
72'
L. Kiyemba
73'
R. Mukoghotya
79'
A. Feni← A. Feni
84'
R. Walugembe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: BUL 1–1 Kyetume

BUL and Kyetume drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 13, 2021.

Goals: R. Mukoghotya (73'), R. Walugembe (84').

The match was played at Kyabazinga Stadium in Bugembe.