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Kwekwe United vs Green Fuel — Premier Soccer League 2026

Kwekwe United
Kwekwe United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Green Fuel
Green Fuel
6/1/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 14Bata Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kwekwe United28%
×Draw30%
Green Fuel42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kwekwe United
0.90
Green Fuel
1.18

Green Fuel creates 31% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 51 away

creates per match

Kwekwe United
0.56
Green Fuel
0.55

allows per match

Kwekwe United
1.81
Green Fuel
1.24

finishing

Kwekwe United+0.00on par
Green Fuel+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kwekwe United ↓

Green Fuel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kwekwe United or draw
58%
Kwekwe United or Green Fuel
70%
Draw or Green Fuel
72%

Winning margin

Kwekwe United wins by 2+
10%
Green Fuel wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kwekwe United 1+ goals
59%
Kwekwe United 2+ goals
23%
Kwekwe United 3+ goals
6%
Green Fuel 1+ goals
69%
Green Fuel 2+ goals
33%
Green Fuel 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kwekwe United (draw refunded)
40%
Green Fuel (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kwekwe United at home — creates 0.56, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Green Fuel away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kwekwe United attack 0.56 + Green Fuel defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.90

Green Fuel attack 0.55 + Kwekwe United defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kwekwe United scores more
28%
level
30%
Green Fuel scores more
42%

Green Fuel at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Green Fuel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Kwekwe United 1–1 Green Fuel

Kwekwe United and Green Fuel drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Bata Stadium in Gweru.