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Green Fuel vs Kwekwe United — Premier Soccer League 2026

Green Fuel
Green Fuel
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Kwekwe United
Kwekwe United
10/18/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Green Fuel70%
×Draw20%
Kwekwe United10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Fuel
1.92
Kwekwe United
0.55

Green Fuel creates 249% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Green Fuel
1.08
Kwekwe United
0.35

allows per match

Green Fuel
0.75
Kwekwe United
2.76

finishing

Green Fuel+0.00on par
Kwekwe United+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Fuel ↓

Kwekwe United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Green Fuel or draw
90%
Green Fuel or Kwekwe United
80%
Draw or Kwekwe United
30%

Winning margin

Green Fuel wins by 2+
44%
Kwekwe United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Green Fuel 1+ goals
85%
Green Fuel 2+ goals
57%
Green Fuel 3+ goals
30%
Kwekwe United 1+ goals
42%
Kwekwe United 2+ goals
11%
Kwekwe United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Green Fuel (draw refunded)
88%
Kwekwe United (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Fuel at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.75 · 51 matches

Kwekwe United away — creates 0.35, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Fuel attack 1.08 + Kwekwe United defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 1.92

Kwekwe United attack 0.35 + Green Fuel defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Green Fuel scores more
70%
level
20%
Kwekwe United scores more
10%

Green Fuel at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Green Fuel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Green Fuel vs Kwekwe United

Green Fuel beat Kwekwe United 5-0 in Premier Soccer League on October 18, 2025.