Kwekwe United 2–4 Chicken Inn: Result & Stats

Kwekwe United

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 0

Chicken Inn

M. Minezhi 45' (pen)

L. Matutu 10'

B. Makopa 80', 68', 53', 49'

5/11/2025

Premier Soccer League · Round 11Bata Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kwekwe United20%

×Draw28%

Chicken Inn52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kwekwe UnitedExpected goals in this matchChicken Inn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.72

1.35

Kwekwe United

0.72

Chicken Inn

1.35

Chicken Inn creates 88% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 96 away

0.56

creates per match

0.89

1.81

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Kwekwe United

0.56

Chicken Inn

0.89

allows per match

Kwekwe United

1.81

Chicken Inn

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kwekwe United+0.00on par

Chicken Inn+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kwekwe United ↓

Chicken Inn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–117%

0–212%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Kwekwe United or draw

48%

Kwekwe United or Chicken Inn

72%

Draw or Chicken Inn

80%

Winning margin

Kwekwe United wins by 2+

6%

Chicken Inn wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Kwekwe United 1+ goals

51%

Kwekwe United 2+ goals

16%

Kwekwe United 3+ goals

4%

Chicken Inn 1+ goals

74%

Chicken Inn 2+ goals

39%

Chicken Inn 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kwekwe United (draw refunded)

28%

Chicken Inn (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kwekwe United at home — creates 0.56, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Chicken Inn away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.88 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kwekwe United attack 0.56 + Chicken Inn defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.72

Chicken Inn attack 0.89 + Kwekwe United defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kwekwe United scores more

20%

level

28%

Chicken Inn scores more

52%

Chicken Inn at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chicken Inn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

L. Matutu

45'

M. MinezhiPenalty

49'

53'

68'

80'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff