Kwara United 1–0 Ifeanyi Uba: Result & Stats | NPFL

Kwara United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ifeanyi Uba

1/24/2021

NPFL · Round 6Kwara Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Kwara United64%

×Draw25%

Ifeanyi Uba12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kwara UnitedExpected goals in this matchIfeanyi Uba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.51

Kwara United

1.58

Ifeanyi Uba

0.51

Kwara United creates 210% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 46 away

1.39

creates per match

0.57

0.45

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Kwara United

1.39

Ifeanyi Uba

0.57

allows per match

Kwara United

0.45

Ifeanyi Uba

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kwara United+0.00on par

Ifeanyi Uba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kwara United ↓

Ifeanyi Uba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Kwara United or draw

88%

Kwara United or Ifeanyi Uba

75%

Draw or Ifeanyi Uba

36%

Winning margin

Kwara United wins by 2+

35%

Ifeanyi Uba wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Kwara United 1+ goals

79%

Kwara United 2+ goals

47%

Kwara United 3+ goals

21%

Ifeanyi Uba 1+ goals

40%

Ifeanyi Uba 2+ goals

9%

Ifeanyi Uba 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Kwara United (draw refunded)

84%

Ifeanyi Uba (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kwara United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.45 · 127 matches

Ifeanyi Uba away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.78 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kwara United attack 1.39 + Ifeanyi Uba defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.58

Ifeanyi Uba attack 0.57 + Kwara United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Kwara United scores more

64%

level

25%

Ifeanyi Uba scores more

12%

Kwara United at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Kwara United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff