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Ifeanyi Uba vs Kwara United — NPFL 2019

Ifeanyi Uba
Ifeanyi Uba
FT
1 – 0
Kwara United
Kwara United
12/18/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 9FC Ifeanyi Ubah International Stadium (Nnewi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Ifeanyi Uba56%
×Draw27%
Kwara United16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ifeanyi Uba
1.41
Kwara United
0.62

Ifeanyi Uba creates 127% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 128 away

creates per match

Ifeanyi Uba
1.27
Kwara United
0.58

allows per match

Ifeanyi Uba
0.66
Kwara United
1.55

finishing

Ifeanyi Uba+0.00on par
Kwara United+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ifeanyi Uba ↓

Kwara United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ifeanyi Uba or draw
84%
Ifeanyi Uba or Kwara United
73%
Draw or Kwara United
44%

Winning margin

Ifeanyi Uba wins by 2+
28%
Kwara United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ifeanyi Uba 1+ goals
76%
Ifeanyi Uba 2+ goals
41%
Ifeanyi Uba 3+ goals
17%
Kwara United 1+ goals
46%
Kwara United 2+ goals
13%
Kwara United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ifeanyi Uba (draw refunded)
77%
Kwara United (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ifeanyi Uba at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.66 · 44 matches

Kwara United away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.55 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ifeanyi Uba attack 1.27 + Kwara United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.41

Kwara United attack 0.58 + Ifeanyi Uba defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ifeanyi Uba scores more
56%
level
27%
Kwara United scores more
16%

Ifeanyi Uba at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ifeanyi Uba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Ifeanyi Uba 1–0 Kwara United

Ifeanyi Uba beat Kwara United 1-0 in NPFL on December 18, 2019.

The match was played at FC Ifeanyi Ubah International Stadium (Nnewi).