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Kwara United vs Doma United — NPFL 2019

Kwara United
Kwara United
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Doma United
Doma United
12/6/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 12Kwara Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Kwara United64%
×Draw25%
Doma United11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kwara United
1.53
Doma United
0.46

Kwara United creates 233% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 28 away

creates per match

Kwara United
1.39
Doma United
0.46

allows per match

Kwara United
0.45
Doma United
1.68

finishing

Kwara United+0.00on par
Doma United+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kwara United ↓

Doma United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kwara United or draw
89%
Kwara United or Doma United
75%
Draw or Doma United
36%

Winning margin

Kwara United wins by 2+
35%
Doma United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kwara United 1+ goals
78%
Kwara United 2+ goals
45%
Kwara United 3+ goals
20%
Doma United 1+ goals
37%
Doma United 2+ goals
8%
Doma United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Kwara United (draw refunded)
85%
Doma United (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kwara United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.45 · 127 matches

Doma United away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.68 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kwara United attack 1.39 + Doma United defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.53

Doma United attack 0.46 + Kwara United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Kwara United scores more
64%
level
25%
Doma United scores more
11%

Kwara United at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Kwara United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kwara United vs Doma United

Kwara United and Doma United drew 0-0 in NPFL on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Kwara Sports Complex in Ilorin.